Russia’s comeback in Africa is fundamentally a geopolitical power play. 

After a post-Soviet break, Moscow is back, viewing the continent as a vital arena to build a multipolar world and push back against Western influence and sanctions. Russia is not focused on trade, it’s focused on securing diplomatic leverage and security partnerships. 

Economic Footprint vs. Political Clout Russia’s economic footprint is modest compared to its political ambitions. Bilateral trade hit only $24.5 billion in 2024, dwarfed by Russia’s trade with Asia and Europe. This tells you that for the Kremlin, the prize isn’t market share; it’s political influence and strategic access. 

The Appeal of ‘No Questions Asked’ Security 

The core of Russia’s strategy is military and security cooperation. This means arms sales, military training, and, most controversially, the deployment of private military companies (PMCs), such as the reorganized Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group). 

The appeal of this model is clear: It is a no questions asked partnership. For regimes facing internal instability or seeking to consolidate power, Russia offers security support without the human rights or governance conditions that come with Western aid. This makes it a popular, albeit often short-term, choice for political elites looking to secure their position.

Examples of this elite-based strategy are visible across the Sahel and Central Africa, where the presence of PMCs is tied directly to the security needs of the ruling power. 

Competition and Limitations 

Despite this aggressive approach, Russia’s influence isn’t absolute. Data shows that Russian arms exports to Sub-Saharan Africa plunged by 52% between 2019 and 2023, losing ground to other suppliers like China. 

This suggests that while Russia offers a compelling security alternative, its model has limits. The use of PMCs provides Moscow with plausible deniability, but it also ties Russia s reputation to the often brutal actions of these groups. As African nations continue their multi-alignment strategy, they are actively shopping for the security partner that best serves their interests, forcing Russia to compete in a rapidly evolving market.